John Key / Andy Krieger – timeline debate – true or false?

NZ Election 2008 – In the Public Interest

The Registrar – Monday, 02 November 2008

John Key and the things he does not want you to know.

A Work in Progress …

This inquiry trail represents the collaborative efforts of astute Media Watchers working independently in their search for answers that may resolve issues raised by media ‘spin’ detracting attention away from John Key’s involvement in …

The Attack on the NZ dollar in 1987.

It seems more and more people are finding their way to the inconsistencies of the story John Key would have you believe.

If you think this post merits attention please share it or give the link to anyone you know with a computer, your friends colleagues etc …

If you care to print it out please make sure you include the source links – they will guide you to the relevant web pages. Thank you.

Oh what a tangled web we weave – When first we practice to deceive.
Sir Walter Scott

What we ask is that you read this with an open mind – set aside the media ‘spin’ – examine the relevant timelines – reach your own conclusion – and take a deep breath.

The Andrew Krieger timeline and the discrepancies with John Key’s timeline.

More evidence of the Key PR ‘spin’ orchestrated with the help of media collaboration.

It took time, but finally the resulting conclusion had its genesis in reading through the 15 page Eugene Bingham unauthorised Biography of John Key “In Search of John Key”, NZ Herald – 3:00 pm, Saturday, 19 July 2008.  It made for very interesting reading indeed.

There is no doubt – it is a great PR story. The lead into the 15 page editorial, sets the rationale behind the ‘Search for John Key’: 

• In three months John Key will be standing for the country’s highest office.

• Polls suggest that the 47-year-old will be New Zealand’s next Prime Minister. Yet he remains relatively unknown.

• Who really is John Key?  Where did he come from? and what motivates his ambition?

Key’s need for media exposure was possibly driven by his campaign strategists Crosby/Textor and the cultivation of Key’s media contacts would be vital to the success of his bid to become Prime Minister.

The continued cultivation of influential media contacts is evident by the follow-up publication by Carroll du Chateau – John Key, the man who would be PM – NZ Herald, Saturday, 26 July 2008. From her interviews with John Key, we learn much about the man who wants the top job.

But the cultivation of media contacts began much earlier with the arranged publication of John Key’s life before politics and the Merrill Lynch years.

The Who is John Key article by Gillian Tett and Ruth Laugesen – NZ Sunday Star-Times, Friday, 08 February 2008 – talks candidly about how, 20 years ago, John Key worked closely with a famed currency trader who mounted a brutal speculative attack on the Kiwi dollar. It was the scale, audacity and profitability of this attack on our New Zealand currency, which became a forex (foreign exchange) trading legend. John Key, the futures trader with an eye to become PM – in 1987, provoked a Reserve Bank alarm that the New Zealand currency would collapse.

As could be predicted the editorials all painted a picture of John Key as a squeaky clean, hard-working, driven man with a big heart. We are told that he is a good family man and was a good son to his mother whom he called everyday while working abroad.

Although he [Key] worked with Andrew [Andy] Krieger – Key, miraculously avoided being involved in the New Zealand ‘kiwi’ dollar attack by Krieger in 1987.

Key did not muck up during the Asian crisis, whatever that may mean, and was appalled at the level of risk Merrill Lynch, his former boss had taken on with such Financial products that can now be seen to have contributed to the cause of the sub-prime crisis. Eventually leading to the failure of Merrill Lynch itself.

Lucky for him, Key again escaped involvement because those financial products were only developed in 2004-2005.

Key has worked in London, Australia and Singapore and again he has avoided another not so nice association; the sewer that is Wall St., New York, from whence all the bad news about the subprime crisis seems to originate.

We are told by the media spin, that we have nothing to fear from this honest hard working man who, after becoming financially independent through his own hard slog, came home to fulfill his childhood dream: To lead this country to the greatness he feels it deserves.

That’s nice, I feel a whole lot better now… but wait, I have this strange nagging feeling that just won’t go away. Something isn’t quite right. It sits uncomfortable in the back of my head as I try to get my thoughts straight. I decide to go back to earlier interviews and reread them to see if I can get a handle on that uncomfortable nagging feeling.

This is a summary of the orchestrated media hype that portrays John Key the way he wants you to see him.

John Key and the 1987 attack on the NZ dollar.

In the autumn of 1987 Andrew Krieger, the Global head of Bankers Trust, Foreign Exchange, New York, launched a brutal and spectacular attack on the New Zealand dollar. He thought that the dollar was overvalued and bet that the dollar would fall. In order to force the dollar down he started to sell NZ dollars in such huge amounts that the dollar indeed fell in the order of 5% to 10% depending on whose version you believe. He bet such a huge amount of money on the fall of the NZ $ (again depending on who you believe – anywhere between $600 million to $1 billion) and as such Andrew Krieger and his side-kick John Key, became a legend in the financing world.

The attack was so spectacular that the NZ Reserve Bank had to contact Bankers Trust in New York to inquire why they seemed so hell-bent on creating instability in the ‘kiwi’ currency. The risks had a huge impact on the NZ economy and could easily have caused a massive economic setback impacting on the NZ population.

It is not hard to understand that John Key, who after all has come back to do “good” for New Zealanders, is more than eager to distance himself from this episode of foreign exchange history. It would not come across as well if it turned out he was involved in the predatorial attack on the NZ dollar that could have cost a lot of his prospective voters their livelihoods.

In the NZ Herald editorial we learn the year in which John Key went to work for the Bankers trust. In fact it is mentioned two times. The NZ Herald article states that John Key went to work for Bankers Trust in 1988 and Andrew Krieger made his attack in the autumn of 1987. In fact the article goes as far as saying:

“As the record book shows, [who’s record book][was/is this a reference to Krieger’s Money Bazzar?] when Krieger made his most famous speculative raid on the kiwi in 1987, Key had yet to start at Bankers Trust. Krieger believed the kiwi was over-valued and bet on a fall, selling hundreds of millions of dollars at a time, and once pushing the price of the kiwi down 5 per cent in a day, and eventually, he claims in his book, The Money Bazaar, helped begin a fall in the value of the New Zealand dollar. The strategy was to rebuy when the ‘kiwi’ bottomed out at 59c.

The Reserve Bank was alarmed but the crisis passed. [According to the NZH] Key was not at BT during Krieger’s spectacular raid, but when he began running the dealing room at BT in 1988 he [Key] dealt with the New York-based American, a relationship he was comfortable with. He told the Sunday Star-Times earlier this year that Krieger “was a very intelligent guy.”

Key’s then boss, Gavin Walker, points out that working with Krieger was part of the job. “Managing that relationship on behalf of the dealing room was part of John’s responsibilities. He knew everything Krieger was executing on our desk.”

So that’s settled then, [according to the media] John Key did not work for Bankers Trust when Andrew Krieger attacked the currency. [But wait – there’s more …]

This is where the nagging started again and going back through the research notes – this is what was found:

Andrew Krieger left Bankers Trust NY, in February 1988.

When starting research on John Key – the researcher remembered Googling Andrew Krieger and up turned an interesting article in the New York Times about Andrew Krieger and his currency manipulations.

It turns out that Andrew Krieger left Bankers Trust to work for George Soros after he only got paid a paltry $3 million as a reward for the fact that as a result of his attack on the NZ $, Krieger [with the help of John Key] made Bankers Trust some $300 million in profits.

The NZ Herald goes on to say:

“In [month required] 1988, Key was on the verge of leaving Elders, unshackling himself from a three-year contract after agreeing to three months’ “gardening leave” before taking up his new job at Bankers Trust, newly established in New Zealand.” [How and when established?]

This implies that John Key had to wait three months [from when Key left Elders] before starting to work for Bankers Trust, [in NZ]. If this is so then there is a problem.

If Andrew Krieger left Bankers Trust NY, in February 1988 and John Key had to wait three months [after leaving Elders] before starting to work for Bankers Trust in NZ, then, even if those three months started on 1 January 1988, Key would not have been able to work with Andrew Krieger as a customer because Andrew Krieger was no longer working for Bankers Trust in New York. In fact he would have missed Andrew Krieger by four to seven weeks.

[The fact is ] Andrew Krieger went to work for George Soros in a senior management position from April 1988 until June 1988 and left currency trading altogether until he made a return in 1990.

[If John Key’s three month stand-down from Elders [the so-called “gardening leave”] was in fact from 1 January 1988 to 1 April 1988 – John Key would not have been able to work with Krieger at the times Key said he did. Follow the trail …

In an interview with John Key in the Sunday Star-Times

“He [Key] formed what was to be a lucrative relationship with 32-year-old currency trader Andy Krieger, based at Bankers Trust in New York, who began putting hundreds of millions of dollars of business through Key’s dealing room.”

The same article states that Andrew Krieger was working for Bankers Trust NY, while doing business with John Key in the Bankers Trust NZ, dealing room. [The following passage is interesting – although Key can’t remember whether he actually executed some of the sells for Krieger – the 1987 year is referred to – however there are questions of timing to be resolved – the Krieger/Key timelines just don’t add up.]

“While Key can’t remember whether he actually executed some of the sells for Krieger’s 1987 speculative play on the ‘kiwi’, the timing suggests he did not. But Krieger continued his high-rolling punts on the ‘kiwi’ dollar after his big win. Krieger, often placing $50m buy or sell orders with Key and his dealing room. The huge flow of business from Krieger and others at Bankers Trust in New York soon turned the local branch into the number one dealing room in New Zealand, cementing Key’s success and fattening his bonus packets.”

While this could be a once off mistake made by the journalists who wrote the article, the quotes leave no doubt that John Key was taking big orders from Andrew Krieger:

“Key remembers getting a call from Krieger soon after he [Key] started at Bankers Trust. [According to key] The New York trader’s first question was about New Zealand’s GDP and money supply.”

[Remember this was in 1987 when the ‘kiwi’ currency was a new commodity on the foreign exchange market.]

“It was really the management of that relationship on behalf of the dealing room that John had responsibility for,” says Gavin Walker, former chief executive of Bankers Trust in New Zealand. “He knew everything that was going on in terms of the orders that Krieger was executing on our desk.”

This invites several questions:

If Andrew Krieger had already done the dastardly raid on our ‘kiwi’ currency [during 1987] then why does Krieger call a total newcomer in the bank about the state of the GDP and our currency? [In 1988]

If John Key arrives at Bankers Trust [In 1988] sometime after Andrew Krieger has left Bankers Trust [April 1988] then why does the article describe John Key as taking big orders from Andrew Krieger and others from Bankers Trust in New York?

And if John Key arrived after Andrew Krieger left Bankers Trust NY, then why is Gavin Walker the former chief executive of Bankers Trust NZ quoted as saying: “It was really the management of that relationship on behalf of the dealing room that John had responsibility for.” ?

It can be opined that Sunday Star-Times journalists Gillian Tett and Ruth Laugesen were confused about the timeline – but it becomes harder to believe that both John Key and Gavin Walker would be mistaken about telephone calls or John Key’s function in the dealing room. If John Key remembers receiving a telephone call from Krieger wanting information about the GDP and currency – it is very likely this has happened and if Walker says that the management of the relationship with Krieger was John Key’s job then it most likely was.

Now this is where the NZ Herald article can bring some form of verification.

Surely the three experienced NZ Herald journalists, Eugene Bingham, Carroll du Chateau and Paula Oliver, tasked with researching and writing the article, would have checked, checked and double checked the timeline they so proudly presented on the website of the NZ Herald.

But no, – they reiterate the same confused timeline: [they say] John Key arrived at Bankers Trust sometime in 1988 and began a trading relationship with Andrew Krieger the New York based trader. Again, Gavin Walker is quoted as saying that it was John Key’s job to deal with Krieger, who by then was long gone from the Bankers Trust New York dealing room.

If it is correct that:

“Key was not at BT during Krieger’s spectacular [1987] raid, but [was with BT] when he [Key] began running the dealing room at BT in 1988 – he [Key] dealt with the New York-based American, a relationship he was comfortable with. [Remember] He told the Sunday Star-Times that Krieger “was a very intelligent guy.”

“Key’s then boss, Gavin Walker, points out that working with Krieger was part of the job. [Key’s job] “Managing that relationship on behalf of the dealing room was part of John’s responsibilities. He knew everything Krieger was executing on our desk.”

Something does not add up.

According to  the man himself – Andrew Krieger, left Soros in June 1988 and started his own consultancy business because he felt he was in a rut doing the same crazy hours and he felt like spending more time with his family so the old fire wasn’t burning any more. Krieger ran his own business for several years – and yet we are told in two separate interviews that managing the huge amounts of money Krieger [at the Bankers Trust NY dealing room] was selling and buying was John Key’s main job at Bankers Trust NZ.

Therefore, [unless the contrary can be established] the conclusion we are left with is as follows:

John Key and Krieger have clearly worked together as money traders, this is confirmed in two interviews. The NZ Herald would have the least reason to maintain these ties since it still puts Andrew Krieger and John Key together as currency traders.

While the focus of this part of the NZ Herald and Sunday Star-Times articles was to distance John Key from the biggest attack on the ‘kiwi’ dollar in the history of New Zealand. The facts of the connection have been confirmed by John Key himself and by his then boss Gavin Walker.

Since Andrew Krieger according to the New York Times left Bankers Trust in February of 1988 – and according to Andrew Krieger he may even have left earlier than that – it appears to be impossible for John Key and Andrew Krieger to have done the alleged dealing in 1988.

John Key, according to himself, left Elders in [month required] 1988 and he had to wait three months before he could begin trading at Bankers Trust NZ – thus making trading with Andrew Krieger as a Bankers Trust NY dealer in 1988, impossible.

The question now is – who was dealing? and from where were they dealing? during the John Key / Andrew Krieger raid on the ‘kiwi’ currency?

Andrew Krieger left the currency trading market in June 1988 after [commencing April 1988] as a senior portfolio manager for Soros – in all probability not dealing himself but managing his junior portfolio managers.

According to the Sunday Star-Times and NZ Herald PR editorials – we cannot be sure exactly when John Key started to work for Bankers Trust, but even if the three month stand down period started on 1 January 1988 he would still have missed Andrew Krieger at the Bankers Trust NY dealing room, and the relationship as both John Key and Gavin Walker describe it would not have been possible.

Since both men unwaveringly describe such a relationship in two different articles, one written by two Sunday Star-Times journalists and the other by three NZ Herald journalist – it should have been, that between the lot of them – someone would have spotted the error in the timeline. They didn’t. The only conclusion therefor:

John Key did work with Andrew Krieger and indeed managed his account but this could not have been done in 1988.

If we are to accept that John Key and Gavin Walker gave correct information when talking about the John Key / Andrew Krieger’s relationship – then, whether by design, omission, or a faulty memory – since the 1988 date was impossible – either they must have given incorrect information about the period in which this took place, or the journo’s need to revisit their timeline.

John Key and Andrew Krieger can only have worked together in 1987 thus putting John Key firmly in the traders chair on the other side of the telephone line to Bankers Trust New York where [it is an historical fact] Andrew Krieger was giving orders in what was to be the biggest attack on the New Zealand currency putting tens of thousands of New Zealand jobs and incomes at risk.

So where was John Key in 1987 ?

Update on John key and the 1987 attack on the NZ dollar.

From an astute Media Watcher – while researching John Key and the Asian crisis, we learn some interesting information making it impossible for Key to have worked hand in glove with Krieger at the time John Key and Gavin Walker say he did.

In fact it makes it abundantly clear that either John Key had a serious memory lapse, – or the NZ Herald journalists made a grave mistake in their timeline, – or we have not been told the whole truth.

[Is there is a contrived, orchestrated, distancing of John Key from his ‘dealing’ in 1987.]

John Key claims he started to work with Andrew Krieger and through him Andrew Krieger bought and sold millions of NZ dollars.

[Key claims] the relationship was an enduring one and went on for a fair amount of time. Since he [Key] started working with Krieger after he [Krieger] attacked the NZ $ – the NZ Herald claims Key can not be associated with the damage done to the NZ economy as a result of the attack, and he [Key] comes through as squeaky clean in what was notably a brutal attack on a small ‘kiwi’ currency.

It is on record, New York Times, 7 June 1988 – Bankers Trust made some $300 million and the NZ economy recovered – but it could have ended up like the Asian crisis and it could have pushed the NZ economy into a massive recession.

Well [if you dig deep enough] [behind the NZ media ‘spin’] it turns out that John Key is not as squeaky clean as we are led to believe.

The astute Media Watcher, ‘digging deep’ discovered …

It is all those ‘registrations’ and ‘online data bases’ that make it so difficult to keep a story straight – so let’s have [a look at] the facts.

Andrew Krieger left Bankers Trust New York head quarters where he had served as the Global head for foreign exchange in February 1988.

This is all on record in the archives of New York Times, because it was the move that set Wall street mouths wagging that resulted in Andrew Krieger becoming a legend as a result of his daring attack on the ‘kiwi’ dollar in 1987.

John Key claims he went to work with Andrew Krieger in 1988 while working for the New Zealand branch of Bankers Trust. However Bankers Trust NZ was not at that time registered with the NZ Reserve Bank until June 21, 1988, when it registered as a Holding company with an amendment registered suggesting it would not be open for business as a bank until August 22 of that same year. [1988]

A quick telephone call to the NZ Reserve Bank confirmed that anyone can start banking activities but if you want to be an official Bank and carry on trading under that name you can only do so after registration.

An on-line search of the NZ Companies Office database for the company name ‘Bankers Trust’ returns a result indicating, “No Companies exist which satisfy the search conditions specified.”

Notwithstanding: BT New Zealand (Holdings) Limited, Registered 21 June 1988.  And, Bankers Trust New Zealand Limited, Amended 22 August 1988 – Relinquished 21 June 1999 – appear on the Reserve Bank List of registered banks in New Zealand – past and present.

This raises another line of inquiry – how can it be that the above company names appear to be registered for the purpose of NZ Reserve Bank requirements – but have no record of being registered with the NZ Companies Office?

Andrew Krieger started to work for George Soros in April 1988 and left again in June 1988 to start his own business as a consultant.
NY Times reported – When Mr. Krieger left Bankers Trust, rumors abounded that he had had a personality conflict at the bank or that something untoward had been going on. No one could believe that he would just walk away from so much money. No scandal materialized.

However, the following passage in the NY Times is relevant to the raid on the ‘kiwi’ dollar in 1987 – Mr. Krieger, 32 years old, would not talk numbers, but he is clearly discussing hefty sums. Mr. Krieger’s currency trading earned about $300 million for Bankers Trust last year – and a $3 million bonus for him.

Further insight into the reported Bankers Trust problems go some way to explain Krieger’s forex trading style – resulting in Bankers Trust NY, announcing that it had overstated its foreign exchange revenues for 1987’s fourth quarter by $80 million resulted from its unusual style of trading and the size of its market positions, industry executives said yesterday. The overstatement is apparently tied to one incident last fall, Mr. Krieger apparently took such a large position in New Zealand dollars that the ‘kiwi’ currency moved 5 percent in one day, causing local central banking authorities to complain to the bank. Mr. Vojta told analysts Wednesday that options on New Zealand ‘kiwi’ dollars were among those that had to be revalued downward. Other currencies involved included yen, West German marks and British pounds.

Although no one is charging any deliberate mismanagement of positions, Bankers Trust executives told a skeptical group of analysts yesterday that its problems stemmed from mispricing some of its currency options contracts in yen, West German marks and New Zealand ‘kiwi’ dollars. The value of such options contracts are notoriously hard to pin down. NY Times, 21 July 1988.

Like John Key – Andrew Krieger also distances himself from the forex market and does not trade in currencies until he re enters the forex market with his own business in September 1990 – more than 2 years after he left Soros.

[The timeline suggests] – If John Key ever worked with Andrew Krieger he [Key] must have been working for Bankers Trust Australia and he [Key] must have left Elders a full year earlier that he says he did.

He [Key] may well have started to work in New Zealand in 1988 when Bankers Trust opened its New Zealand Branch in June 1988 [see registration] – therefore, [before that date] Key’s work with Andrew Krieger can only have been done if Key went overseas to work for Bankers Trust [most likely] in Australia.

A possible alternative, but not very likely, is that John Key did not leave Elders when he (and the media) say he did. Was he ‘on holiday’ or was he in some ‘dealing room’ somewhere ? Big Question that deserves an answer.

Inquiries are continuing to establish the veracity or otherwise of the timeline supporting this hypothesis.

John Keys’ whereabouts need to be established for the relevant 1987 timelines.

Was Key in NZ – or was he in Oz – this should not be too difficult to establish by those with access to the right resources.

[Is it possible that Key is using the media to create a contrived paper trail to cover up and avoid detection of involvement with Andrew Krieger and the Bankers Trust “mispricing some of its ‘kiwi’ currency options. – Could this be John Key’s Archilles heal? Is it this connection to Key’s forex trading past, that Key is so desperate to distance himself from?] A good motive?

Having regard to the “neutron bomb’ that became “a fizzer” – the story is not over by a long shot.

Now is you chance to ‘follow the research’ – discover the ‘facts’ – and ‘publish the story’ – without the ‘spin’.

Are you up to the challenge – or is it outside the brief?

The John Key / H-Fee story – may have been pre-empted by the media defusing ‘the bomb’ and reducing it to ‘a fizzer’.

Our Prime Minister may not be perusing the story – Mike Williams, may not have discovered the missing evidence that may link John Key to the trading deals Key appears so determined to distance himself from.

Whatever ‘spin’ the media wish to subscribe to – the fact remains that there is a depth of ‘public interest’ giving rise to questions that need to be answered.

The main issue is the need for clarification as to ‘just where was John Key at the time relevant to his acknowledged involvement with the infamous Andrew Krieger’s speculative attack on the New Zealand ‘kiwi’ currency in 1987 ?

In case you missed it – that’s the one where John Key was involved with the near collapse of the New Zealand’s economy.  Krieger’s raid on the ‘kiwi’ dollar.  What ! – You don’t believe it?  Take your head out of the spin and dare to at least recheck the facts.

The Herald and other media ‘spin’, subscribed to and reiterated by TV commentators, just do not stack up.  Examination of the timelines of both John Key and Andy Krieger reveal that the story so far told – has a lot that has not been untold.

Eugene Bingham – Herald, Saturday, 01 November 2008 – rose to the challenge and his Anatomy of a $76 million political dirt file – digs a bit deeper with his teaspoon.

Apparently Bingham dug up something that for whatever reason was withheld from previous media editorials.  No! it’s not a ‘dirt file’ – it is an admission that John Key was deliberately [knowingly] misleading,  or was yet again,  genuinely mistaken.

Yes – the Herald too has picked up the thread …

Bingham discovered – What has emerged is evidence of Key having been wrong about elements of his story, including his claim that he left Elders Merchant Finance in 1987. In fact, he resigned in June 1988 and officially left on August 31. He also said in the interview last year he had left Elders three months before the H-Fees went through. [Here too, Key was] Technically wrong …

Was he being deliberately misleading or was he genuinely mistaken? Surely, if you’re going on the front foot to fend off serious allegations, you get your facts right, don’t you?

For Key, the problem is that he should not be seen to be mistaken during the heat of an election campaign.

Labour’s stump speech revolves around the theme of trust, and Key has previously been mistaken or less than forthcoming with the truth – remember the TranzRail share issue? When the media reported that he had owned 30,000 shares in the company, he failed to disclose that he in fact owned 100,000. Making matters worse, when challenged by a TVNZ reporter last month, Key was not immediately up-front, initially saying he owned 30,000 shares, until corrected by the reporter.

However, the issue of John Key’s involvement in the near collapse of New Zealand’s currency in 1987 cannot now be overlooked.  It appears Key was not where he led us to believe he was, or where he said he was when dealing with Kriegen and his raid on the ‘kiwi’ currency – and he may possibly not have been where he said he was when the H-Fee scams were being hatched.

It has been said before, and the comments on several websites reflect, that this story might have more legs than Key’s most feared five headed dragon.

That Mike Williams and the Labour party may have been ‘spun out’ by the media last week – it is hard to see Key’s media contacts covering up this one.

The NZ Court of Public Opinion, acting in the public interest is continuing to follow the trail and with the input of Media Watchers and others also ‘digging in’ – the truth will inevitably be revealed.

Media Watchers and others with a higher ‘Standard’ than some in the Fourth Estate continue adding to the thread exposing credible leads to discovery of the real story that perhaps YOU might ‘dig into’.

Please examine the timelines and use whatever resources you have to research the facts, then write your story.

Your comments entered below are most welcome …