Winston Peters – Tauranga Cliffhanger

NZ Election 2008 – In the Court of Public Opinion

The Registrar – Wednesday, 15 October 2008

Off the Press …

In the Herald, today, Juliet Rowan picks the battle for the Tauranga seat will be one of the most hotly contested of the election.

Juliet sets out the contenders for the Tauranga vote – The full text of Juliet’s article can be viewed on the Herald website.

There are only two real contenders for MP says Juliet – National’s new young candidate Simon Bridges, and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

Mr Peters hold on the Tauranga seat goes back 21 years, and even now, after narrowly losing to National’s Bob Clarkson in 2005, and recent weeks of negative publicity over the donations scandal, some pundits predict a comeback.

Mr Peters’ defeat at the 2005 election was a narrow one, with only 730 of 36,320 votes separating him and Mr Clarkson. A very narrow victory, within site of being pulled back.

Mr Peters still enjoys a solid support from Tauranga’s elderly, and he and others expected the veteran politician to wage a bitter battle against 31-year-old Mr Bridges, according to Tauranga’s Mayor, Stuart Crosby. “You should never write Winston Peters off,” says Mr Crosby.

Bay of Plenty Times business editor and political reporter Graham Skellern, says: “I’m picking Winston will pick on him.”

Over the years, Mr Peters’ populist policies and oratorical skills have earned him diehard fans among Tauranga’s Grey Power members.

But within the organisation, Winston’s fan base – once known as “Winston’s Army” – was diminishing due to “natural attrition” and Tauranga’s younger population will not necessarily be aware of just how well Winston has served their electorate.

Meanwhile, polls show support for Mr Bridges is growing, reflecting the pains taken to build his profile.

He gave up his job to campaign full-time and has posted far more billboards than his rivals – a wise strategy in a city where large numbers of residents arrive and leave each week, and few candidates can rely on long-term recognition.

The former Crown prosecutor also seeks the seat in the knowledge that National claimed the Tauranga seat in 2005.

And although the electorate (which includes Mt Maunganui) still has the third highest proportion of over 65s, it is no longer “God’s waiting room”, and has a growing population of young families and immigrants, particularly from South Africa and Britain.

Residents also tend to be conservative, perhaps because the city lacks the ethnic diversity of other areas.

Only 1.7 per cent of the population is Pacific, and 3.6 per cent Asian, compared to the national averages of 6.9 per cent and 9.2 per cent, respectively.

Family incomes are about average, and the issues that dominate Tauranga are the same as other urban electorates – transport, crime and health, and, now, the global credit crisis and rising cost of living.

Boundaries have changed this election to include areas to the northeast of Tauranga such as Te Puna and Omokoroa, but exclude areas to the southwest such as Edgecumbe and Matata.

Two-thirds of voters live in urban areas such as Papamoa, and NZ First is likely to gain the ‘party vote’ from retirees and residents of lifestyle blocks. Labour is fielding Carol Devoy-Heena, who is second to bottom on her party list, while Peter Brown is standing again for New Zealand First.

Support for the Greens and New Zealand First, in the electorates covering the Coromandel Peninsula and Hauraki Plains, down to Waihi and Katikati, declined between 2002 and 2005. Just how these electorates will rate in this 2008 election – voting on the day may produce some interesting surprises.

For Mr Peters, there is a lot at stake. A low vote in Tauranga would not only cost him the chance of being the city’s MP again, but with poor party votes in other electorates, New Zealand First might be deprive of the 5 per cent it needs to stay in Parliament. For NZ First, the ‘party vote’ is an important factor in the 2008 election.

In the Court of Public Opinion – NZ First is in with a chance to win the Tauranga seat and regain the ‘party vote’ big tick on election day. That’s the only poll that counts on the day.

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